Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... According to data from the National Energy Administration, by the end of July 2026, the country's photovoltaic power generation capacity had reached 128.6 billion kilowatts, exceeding coal power for the first time. Photovoltaics have become China's largest source of electricity. This marks a historic turning point, one that is two-sided, signaling the end of an old order and the beginning of a new one.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... First, let's look at a set of data.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal Power... Solar power installed capacity reached 128.6 billion kilowatts, accounting for 31.5% of the country's total installed power generation capacity. Coal power installed capacity accounted for 32.4%, with the two almost neck and neck. However, looking at the actual power generated, it's a completely different story. In 2025, coal power, which accounted for 32% of installed capacity, generated 51.1% of the country's electricity. Solar power, which accounted for 31.5% of installed capacity, only generated 12.5% of the country's electricity.
Green momentum surges: When photovoltaics first surpass coal power... Coal power is "small installed capacity, large output". Photovoltaics are "large installed capacity, small output".
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... This is the first truth after photovoltaics become the largest power source: it has become the largest, but it is not necessarily the most powerful. Its installed capacity has risen, but the electricity it generates is far from matching the land it occupies.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal-Fired Power... Why? Because the sun is not always shining. The utilization hours of solar power are just over 1,000 hours per year. Coal-fired power can operate for over 4,000 hours. This physical gap cannot be bridged by technology, it is determined by nature. Therefore, solar power as the primary source of energy is a "substantial but unsustainable" first. This fact will determine every hurdle it faces next.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Lunchtime Electricity Prices: There's a Surplus of Electricity, But It's Cheap
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The electricity generated by photovoltaics is concentrated at noon. At noon, the sunlight is the best, and the photovoltaic output is the largest. As a result, the electricity price is then pushed to the floor.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal-Fired Power... In Shandong, the total number of hours with negative electricity prices in 2024 was 973 hours. During the 2025 Labor Day holiday, which lasted 144 hours, there were 46 hours of real-time market negative electricity prices and 50 hours of day-ahead market negative electricity prices. From May 1 to May 5, almost every day from 8 am to 4 pm was in the negative price range. How much was the negative price? 0.08 yuan per kilowatt-hour.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... In Shanxi, prior to 2024, the frequency of zero electricity prices in the market averaged 4.92% per year, mostly occurring between 12:00 and 14:00, the peak hours for photovoltaic power generation.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Gansu's spot market price floor is 0.04 yuan per kilowatt-hour, also known as the "floor price". In 2024, Gansu's real-time market "floor price" frequency is higher than that of Shandong and Shanxi.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Zhejiang reported a clearing price of -0.2 yuan per degree for two consecutive days in January 2025. Mengxi's lowest price once dropped to -0.04 yuan per degree in April 2025.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The National Energy Administration put it bluntly: "As new energy is fully incorporated into the market, the operation of provincial spot markets will become more robust, and negative electricity prices may appear more frequently."
Green energy surges: when photovoltaics first surpass coal power... The more photovoltaics, the less valuable the electricity at noon. This is not an isolated incident, but rather the market law speaking. The growth of photovoltaic installations and the decline of photovoltaic prices are happening simultaneously. The more installed, the cheaper it sells. For photovoltaic investors, this is a cruel equation.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Grid Connection Difficulties, from "Welcome" to "Go Away"
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Photovoltaic installed capacity soars to 128.6 billion kilowatts, but in many places, it's no longer welcome.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Henan, by June 2025, more than half of the province was designated as a low-voltage bearing capacity "red zone", involving over 70 county-level administrative regions, with the suspension of new distributed photovoltaic project registrations.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... In Shandong, 37 counties under the Southern Grid have no available capacity for absorption. In 2025, detailed rules will be introduced, requiring the proportion of self-generated and self-consumed electricity from distributed photovoltaics for industrial and commercial use to be no less than 50% of the total generated electricity in principle. What does this mean? It means that if you install photovoltaics, you must use at least half of the electricity yourself, and cannot rely solely on selling it to the grid.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Hebei and Southern Grid's 53 counties have no available absorption space. In 2022, a document was issued, strictly prohibiting excessive capacity access, and the photovoltaic capacity connected to the main transformer substations of the power grid at all levels cannot exceed 80% of the equipment's rated capacity.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... At the national level, as of June 2025, more than 450 cities and counties have been designated as "red zones", suspending the filing of new distributed photovoltaic projects.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal Power... Behind these restrictions lies a larger policy shift. In 2025, the National Energy Administration released the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation", which categorizes distributed photovoltaic power into four types: residential use by natural persons, non-residential use by natural persons, general industrial and commercial use, and large-scale industrial and commercial use. Among them, large-scale industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power is required in principle to be self-generated and self-consumed, and is not allowed to be connected to the grid.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... This means that the "golden age" of distributed photovoltaics has come to an end. The previous model of "install and sell electricity, sell electricity and make money" is being tightened layer by layer by policies. There is still room for household photovoltaics, but industrial and commercial photovoltaics, especially large-scale projects, are being pushed towards "self-generation and self-consumption".
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... What does the "red zone" mean? It means the grid is telling you: there's already enough photovoltaics here, any more and I won't be able to handle it.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... This is a signal. As photovoltaic installations become China's largest power source, many places have hung up "temporarily suspended" signs at their doors. It's not because the electricity isn't clean, but because the power grid's capacity has been stretched to its limits.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Coal Power: A Supporting Role, But Not Cheap
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Photovoltaics have become the primary source of electricity, surpassing coal power. However, the role of coal power has not become unimportant.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Coal power is now responsible for "basic guarantee" and "system regulation". Approximately 60% of the country's power generation still comes from coal power, 70% of peak capacity is shouldered by coal power, and 80% of regulation tasks are also borne by coal power.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal Power... But coal power's days are not comfortable. In 2025, coal power utilization hours reached 4,346 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 269 hours. Power generation decreased for the first time in a decade. In the first half of 2026, the proportion of coal power generation fell below 50% for the first time.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Coal power has gone from being the main actor to a supporting role, but its costs have not decreased. In order to keep it alive, the state has established a capacity electricity price mechanism. In its first year of operation in 2024, the country's coal power received approximately 95 billion yuan in capacity fees. By 2026, the proportion of capacity electricity prices used to recover fixed costs has been increased from 30% to no less than 50%, with Yunnan and Gansu directly raising it to 100%.
Green energy surges: When photovoltaics surpass coal power for the first time... It means that even if coal power can't generate as much electricity, it still needs to be subsidized and maintained, so it can take over when photovoltaics can't keep up, especially during the hottest summer days when it's needed most.
Green momentum surges: When photovoltaics surpass coal power for the first time... Where does the money come from? Ultimately, it will be spread across the cost of every kilowatt-hour of electricity and borne by every user's bill.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... So, photovoltaics becoming the largest power source is not just a "green energy victory". Behind it lies coal power being propped up by policies, and the system spending increasingly more money to maintain a fragile balance of "having green power without stopping electricity".
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Photovoltaic Manufacturing: Polarization at the Top, a Bloodbath Ensues
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The news says that globally, 8 out of every 10 photovoltaic components are made in China. This is a true and proud fact. However, it conceals that Chinese companies manufacturing photovoltaic components are undergoing a process of elimination.
Green Momentum Surges: As Solar Overtakes Coal for the First Time... PV module prices have fallen from 1.9 yuan per watt in early 2023 to 0.6–0.7 yuan per watt by the end of 2024, a decline of more than 60%. Polysilicon is down 88.6%, silicon wafers 84.7%, and solar cells 78.7%.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... In December 2024, the operating rate of photovoltaic component enterprises was only 44.2%. By January 2025, it had dropped to 35.95%.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... In the first quarter of 2025, Longi Green Energy incurred a loss of 14.36 billion yuan, Jinko Energy incurred a loss of 13.90 billion yuan, JA Solar incurred a loss of 16.38 billion yuan, and Trina Solar incurred a loss of 13.20 billion yuan.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... In 2024, 16 large-scale photovoltaic companies announced bankruptcy. If companies that have been deregistered, liquidated, or are in other abnormal states are included, this number exceeds 150. More than 20 major companies have been involved in layoffs and production line shutdowns. Jiangsu Yangguang, Aikang Technology, and Yili Energy, which were once listed companies, have been delisted. Jinko Photovoltaics, *ST Jiaju, and *ST Zhongli have entered bankruptcy proceedings.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... On one hand, China holds 80% of the global component market share, while on the other hand, the domestic manufacturing sector is facing a dire situation. These two facts coexist. China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry has taken over the global market with prices "below cash costs," but this comes at the expense of its own profits.
Green Momentum Surges: When Solar Overtakes Coal for the First Time... The problem now isn't that China's solar industry isn't strong enough — it's that it's so strong it has competed every last bit of profit out of the market.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Energy Storage, Originally Intended to Support Photovoltaics, is Also Finding its Way
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal-Fired Power... As solar power increases, people think of energy storage. Store the excess electricity during the day and use it at night. The logic is straightforward, but reality is far more complicated.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The biggest problem with energy storage currently is that once it's built, it can't be utilized. Many provinces' independent energy storage power stations have extremely low utilization rates. In some provinces, the number of charge and discharge cycles per year is only half of the design value, or even lower. Why? Because the peak-to-valley price difference in the spot market is not large enough in many places to allow energy storage to earn back its investment through "buying low and selling high". The compensation from the auxiliary services market is also not stable, and the profit model changes as soon as policies are adjusted.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpassed Coal-Fired Power... What's even more embarrassing is that energy storage and solar power, often in the same market, have become "two crops in the same pit". At noon, when solar power is cheap, energy storage is also charging; at night, when solar power disappears, energy storage discharges. However, when discharging, wind power and coal-fired power are also generating electricity, and the electricity price may not necessarily rise. The returns on energy storage are not as certain as imagined.
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpasses Coal Power... In the next five years, the National Energy Administration has made it clear that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, investment in new energy storage, comprehensive energy services, and other areas will exceed 200 billion yuan. The direction of this investment is clear, but whether it can generate returns depends on one premise: the peak-to-valley price difference in the electricity spot market must be large enough, and the auxiliary service and capacity compensation mechanisms must be stable enough. This premise has not yet been fully met in most provinces.
Green momentum surges: When photovoltaics first surpass coal power... So, the matter of energy storage is heading in the right direction, but its economic dilemma is a real issue. It's not that building energy storage will solve the problems of photovoltaics. Sometimes, energy storage itself is also waiting for policy support.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The Account of a Farmer and the Account of a Factory
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... What does photovoltaics mean to specific individuals?
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... A farmer in Heze, Shandong, installed 4,000-watt photovoltaic panels, all of which were connected to the grid. The annual power generation is 5,000 degrees. Based on Shandong's benchmark coal-fired electricity price of 0.3949 yuan, the annual income is 1,975 yuan. The initial cost was 16,000 yuan, with a payback period of 8 years.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... An 8-year payback period, followed by 15 years of continued use. This calculation was cost-effective in 2020. However, after 2025, the photovoltaic power price in Shandong is being recalculated. The settlement price for industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics has been reduced from 0.3949 yuan to 0.3442 yuan, a decrease of 5 cents per kilowatt-hour.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... These 5 cents mean that for farmers, the payback period changes from 8 years to 9 or 10 years. For industrial and commercial owners, a project that originally took three years to break even now takes four or five years.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... A company in Jiangsu saw its mid-day electricity price drop from 0.78 yuan per kilowatt-hour in May 2025 to 0.45 yuan in the same period in 2026, a decrease of 33 cents. This decline directly compressed the profit margin of self-generated, self-consumed projects.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The more photovoltaic installations, the faster the decline in electricity prices. The faster the decline in electricity prices, the slower the return on investment for those installing photovoltaics. This cycle has already taken shape.
Green momentum surges: as solar power overtakes coal for the first time... It's a story of early movers profiting at the expense of latecomers. Those who installed solar panels in 2020 reaped the rewards of subsidies and high electricity prices. Those who followed after 2025 face an increasingly thinner ledger.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The real question is not who's in the lead
Green Momentum Surges: As Solar PV Overtakes Coal Power for the First Time... The fact that solar PV has become the primary source of electricity has undeniable positive implications.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... China's lead in photovoltaic manufacturing, photovoltaic installation, and photovoltaic technology is real. It has added a new path to China's energy structure, provided an additional lever for peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, and greatly accelerated the global transition to clean energy due to China's scale.
Green momentum surges: When photovoltaics first surpass coal power... But after the turning point, the real question is not "who's the leader," but "can the leader really sustain it."
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... To support photovoltaics, three issues need to be addressed.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The first consideration is absorption. The growth of installed capacity must be matched with the grid's ability to receive, transmit, and utilize it. Otherwise, the 128.6 billion kilowatts of installed capacity will result in one negative electricity price period after another during the daytime and one shortage after another that requires coal power to fill the gap in the evening.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The second issue is electricity prices. Photovoltaic power is becoming increasingly cheaper, which is a trend and an inevitability. However, if electricity prices drop to the point where investors have no hope of recouping their costs, farmers cannot make ends meet, and industrial and commercial owners are no longer willing to install rooftop panels, then this trend will reverse, killing the momentum for new installations.
Green Momentum Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... The third aspect is the profit of manufacturing. China's photovoltaic manufacturing has used the "price war" strategy to dominate the globe. However, cutting prices to below cash costs, causing leading enterprises to collectively incur losses, and resulting in the clearance of over a hundred companies, is not a sustainable approach. Manufacturing needs profit to continue investing in research and development, to continue improving efficiency, and to maintain its global lead.
Green momentum surges: when photovoltaics surpass coal power for the first time... The 20 trillion yuan investment over the next five years will determine whether China's photovoltaic industry will continue to be "big but not strong" or truly become "both big and strong". If the investment is put into energy storage and the power grid to solve the consumption problem, then photovoltaics as the primary power source will truly be the primary power source. If it continues to focus on installing equipment, then being the first will only be a numerical first, a kind of virtual superiority in terms of output.
Green Energy Surges: When Photovoltaics First Surpass Coal Power... Being the primary source of photovoltaic power is a unique first. It has enabled China to take the lead in global energy transformation, but it has also made China the first to encounter a string of problems following the "high proportion of new energy access".
Green Energy Surges: When Solar Power First Surpasses Coal Power... These problems, none of them are insoluble. But each one requires money, time, and effort to solve. And the one that requires the most money, the longest time, and the most effort, is not solar power itself, but the power grid that must accommodate it, and the electricity pricing mechanism that must adapt to it.
Green momentum surges: When photovoltaics first surpass coal power... Photovoltaics has become the leader. The real test has also officially begun.